COP30 delivered two signals that frame the outlook for 2026: first, the political commitment to significantly scale up adaptation finance under the new collective quantified goal; second, the adoption of the Belém Indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). While these outcomes marked progress, they also left open questions around implementation, comparability and support for countries with limited capacities. Against this backdrop, 2026 will be decisive in determining whether adaptation ambition translate into tangible resilience gains worldwide and particularly in the Global South.
The adaptation track in 2026
The first milestone will be the UNFCCC Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB64), expected mid-June 2026. Negotiations are likely to focus on refining the GGA decision. Bonn 2026 will be critical to identify the way forward including on the emerging adaptation metrics based on COP30 president do Lago’s proposal to adopt and refine the decision after many countries had raised their flags and concerns over the content of the final draft decision in the closing plenary in Belém.
The adaptation year will culminate in UNFCCC COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye (9–20 November 2026), with Türkiye’s Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Murat Kurum serving as the COP31 President-Designate and Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen appointed as President of Negotiations. COP31 is likely to be the first major political test of whether post-Belém commitments translate into measurable progress on adaptation finance flow and the implementation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), particularly for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
Adaptation finance and implementation processes
Parallel to the UNFCCC negotiations, adaptation finance and implementation platforms will shape concrete delivery throughout 2026, including Adaptation Fund Board meetings (typically in Q1 and Q3) and associated exchanges with direct access entities, focusing on project pipelines, accreditation readiness, fiduciary standards and results frameworks. These processes are directly relevant for countries where adaptation finance remains constrained by institutional and procedural barriers rather than lack of needs.
CBD and UNCCD: biodiversity, land and adaptation coherence
Adaptation-relevant dynamics will also unfold across the other two Rio Conventions in 2026, notably at the 17th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) (scheduled to take place in Yerevan, Armenia, 19-30 October) and to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) (Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 17-28 August). While operating under distinct mandates, both processes address core dimensions of climate adaptation in practice, particularly in ecosystems, land use and rural livelihoods.
Under the Convention on Biological Diversity, COP17 will focus on advancing implementation of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, with increasing emphasis on ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), climate resilience of ecosystems, and the role of biodiversity in reducing vulnerability to climate impacts. In parallel, UNCCD COP17 will advance agendas on land degradation neutrality, drought resilience, sustainable land and water management, and early warning systems, all of which are central to adaptation outcomes in drylands and climate-vulnerable regions.
Taken together, CBD and UNCCD processes in 2026 offer important opportunities to strengthen coherence between NAPs, National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), and land-use and drought strategies, as well as to better align biodiversity and land finance with adaptation objectives. For many developing countries, particularly LDCs and SIDS with strong ecosystem and land dependencies, this cross-convention alignment is essential to translating global adaptation commitments into integrated, locally anchored resilience gains.
Regional and thematic adaptation dialogues
Beyond the COPs, regional and thematic dialogues throughout 2026 will continue to play a key role in translating global commitments into implementation pathways. Platforms linking adaptation with food systems, urban resilience, water security, nature-based solutions and social protection— including the NAP Expo (tentatively 21–24 April), London Climate Action Week (June 2026) and UN-led food systems and resilience dialogues—are increasingly serving as bridges between UNFCCC-level decisions and national and subnational adaptation planning and delivery.
The Adaptation Committee’s Adaptation Forum, last held in 2024 – more than a decade after the first in 2013 – provides a space to identify opportunities and strengthen collaboration to accelerate adaptation progress. The Forum is expected to take place again in 2029, with no session currently scheduled for 2026.
