What are possible scenarios of internal climate migration in West Africa and Lake Victoria countries in East Africa? Two new reports of the Groundswell Africa series reaffirm the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in the countries studied. The results described in these reports are based on the application of an enhanced version of the Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action.
Whilst the study on West African countries finds that without concrete climate and development action, up to 32 million people in West Africa could be compelled to move within their countries by 2050 as a consequence of slow onset climate impacts, the study on Lake Victoria Basin countries predicts between 16.6 and 38.5 million people in the five analysed Lake Victoria Basin countries could move within their countries in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge.
Timely and concrete climate and development action modulates the scale of future climate-induced human mobility – but the window of opportunity for optimum gains is quickly closing.