Assessment of adaptation potentials in the context of climate change – The case of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean

Fifty-four nations across the globe are designated as coastal Least Developed Countries (LDCs) or  small Island Developing States (SIDS). These countries are experiencing negative impacts from climate change, including sea level rise (SLR), land erosion, changes in the global water cycle, and increased storm intensity already today; capacities to holistically manage risks and to avert, minimise, and address losses and damages lack. Decision-making is not only challenging because of lacking resources but also due to uncertainties. The CLIMADA modelling and analysis tool provides information for Comprehensive and Climate Risk Management and allows for the assessment of potentials of selected adaptation measures beyond the assessment of risks from climate change.

The study region of the Caribbean is extensively exposed to disasters caused by natural events. Especially, increasing tropical cyclone intensities pose a key coastal and ocean risk to Caribbean LDCs and SIDS. This study offers insights into coastal risks in the Caribbean and identifies trends of adaptation options and their effectiveness to reduce economic damages. With the approach designed in this study, it could be shown that trends of averted (economic) damages can be calculated with CLIMADA, supporting the selection processes of an effective mix of measures for climate risk management.