Planning for the future – Using scenario planning to improve the understanding and management of climate-induced migration

This factsheet provides an overview of scenario planning as an approach to deal with migration, displacement and planned relocation in the context of climate change. Scenario planning is a method that involves a wide range of stakeholders and serves as a tool for developing a range of future scenarios based on multiple factors and influences. It is based on a three-phase approach: First, as part of the research phase, the topic is defined and the factual basis for the development of the scenarios is established. In a second step, the foresight phase, the participants develop the scenarios based on specific assumptions. Finally, in a third phase, strategies are developed that can be used to deal with both a specific as well as the whole range of potential scenarios.

The Global Programme Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH has successfully applied scenario planning methods with its partners in the Caribbean, Pacific and the Philippines. In this context, valuable insights and important options for action could be identified.